91st Annual Academy Awards - Oscar Picks by Reviews by Matthew

Even though this is the 20th Anniversary of my Oscar Picks/Write Up I’m never sure about how this is going to turn out when I first begin. I always seem to feel like the nominees are too disparate and the award circuit too unreliable but this year felt like even an exception to that rule. Again however, by the end of the final sentence I found that I felt pretty good about my picks. A little bummed that I couldn’t find a complimentary spot to choose “Black Panther” for a win, though I had it pegged for at least three Oscars during the course of these writings. Be that as it may, there are still some legitimate Oscar challenges going forward and nothing, I mean Nothing, is set in stone. This award season has been one of the wonkiest on record and I can’t wait to see how well or poorly I’ve been able to navigate the waters.

Now, briefly concerning the Academy’s attempts to alter their award show formats. This is a completely personal aside but, I wish the Academy would stop trying to alter the course and practices of their own ceremony. Change things behind the scenes, I’m totally cool with Academy evolution, but don’t alter the stage you’ve set or feel pressured to do so. My advice is to buck up and do things your own way. Run a four-hour show, if that’s what you have to do. You’re the freaking Oscars: the closing ceremony of award season, the night, the names, and the recognition millions of people have been waiting for. Remember and Realize who you are, that you’ve been worth waiting for, that tonight is about honoring and celebrating your craft and yourselves. Don’t go looking to appease anyone who thinks a party can’t run long. You wanna cut something? Cut motherfuckers like that outta your Life, Yo!

-m-

-m-'s: Oscars At A Glance:	How many will I get correct ?	Totals - 16 out of 24 picked
Category	-m-'s Picks	The Oscar goes to:
Best Picture –	Roma	Green Book
Best Director –	Alfonso Cauron (Roma)	Alfonso Cauron (Roma)
Best Actor –	Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)	Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Actress –	Glenn Close (The Wife)	Olivia Coleman (The Favourite)
Best Supporting Actor –	Mahershali Ali (Green Book)	Mahershali Ali (Green Book)
Best Supporting Actress –	Regina Hall (If Beale Street Could Talk)	Regina Hall (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Animated Picture -	Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse	Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Best Screenplany (Original) –	The Favourite	Green Book
Best Screenplay (Adapted) –	BlacKkKlansman	BlacKkKlansman
Best Cinematography –	Alfonso Cauron (Roma)	Alfonso Cauron (Roma)
Best Art Direction – Best Production Design	The Favourite	Black Panther
Best Costume Design –	The Favourite	Black Panther
Best Makeup –	Vice	Vice
Best Film Editing –	Bohemian Rhapsody	Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Original Score –	Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)	Ludwig Goransson (Black Panther)
Best Original Song –	Shallow (A Star Is Born)	Shallow (A Star Is Born)
Best Sound Mixing–	Bohemian Rhapsody	Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Effects Editing –	Bohemian Rhapsody	Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Visual Effects –	Avengers: Infinity War	First Man
Best Foreign Language Film -	Roma	Roma
Best Documentary (Feature) -	Free Solo”	Free Solo
Best Documentary (Short Subject) –	Period. End of Sentence.	Period. End of Sentence.
Best Short Film (Animation) –	Bao	Bao
Best Short Film (Live Action) –	Marguerite	Skin

 

PICTURE – Grrr…Clearly the most convoluted and contested race in recent Oscar history as the most likely winners are mired in controversy, the expected pre-award season favorite has received no award season love, two are good but not great, one is a comic book film, another feels like a throwback to 1990s Oscar Bait, and one film can’t win a “Best Picture” Oscar in two categories can it? Ugh, this is Madness!

“Black Panther” – Thanks to preferential balloting and the lack of a perfectly clear front-runner, I can totally see “Black Panther” winning the Best Picture Oscar. I don’t think it will happen but if it does, it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise. The more likely fate though, of the 1 billon+ worldwide hauling and clear culturally impacting superhero film, is the loss.

“BlacKkKlansman” – The film itself never quite clicked for me on an Oscar level. I think it’s a good movie with some great performances, and it’s obvious that others do to, but I can’t commit to saying that it was Best Picture good. I don’t think that the Academy can commit to that either.

“Bohemian Rhapsody” – The single most fun movie in this category is also hampered by flaws which seem far less concerning during or after repeated viewings. However, if we couple those flaws with the reports of atrocious behind-the-scenes issues, some of which appeared post-Golden Globe win, I just can’t see the film winning the top prize. But that won’t stop me from watching it again and again and again and musing over and over about how this engaging and entertaining bio-pic lost out on the big prize.

“The Favourite” – This is really the oddest duck of the category. And while it may be a little less odd than Yargos’ previously nominated film, “The Lobster”, it still has an independent feel to it. That’s not a bad thing per se but I just can’t see it pulling off a win in this category over the more studio-centric feeling competition.

“Green Book” – The most historically Academy-friendly film of the year, is a more complicated Best Picture pick. It’s a bit too likeable and easy, as film’s go, in all the right places culminating in its justifiable comparisons to 1989’s Best Picture winner “Driving Miss Daisy”, which doesn’t do it any favors, or does it?

“Roma” – I was leaning against this winning two Best Picture awards, but as the days and writing wear on I’m not so sure that any of these other nominees can overcome their controversies as easily as “Roma”. Is the Academy ready to award the streaming giant it’s top prize and proclaim NETFLIX’s legitimacy? Can a film win two Best Picture Oscars in one night? Considering that it’s beating all of the competition on the award circuit by half, I’d say it’s looking more and more likely.

“A Star Is Born” – This is absolutely my choice for Best Picture of the year, and my choice for a bevy of other awards throughout. But, I’ve no voice in these races and it appears that for all the love that went into the film, there just isn’t any kind of reciprocating echo. That silence is the real shame of this Oscar season in my opinion.

“Vice” – There are several reasons why I missed seeing this film in theaters and only one of them that actually upsets me. Regardless, based on a similar nominations platter, I think I can infer and therefore expect, that “Vice” plays out very much like the “The Big Short” did. Meaning ultimately that it has legitimate chances to win awards this year, but I just can’t imagine that “Vice” has the surprisingly innovative impact of McKay’s previous Oscar hopeful.

 

DIRECTOR – What do you mean, no Bradley Cooper? I thought Hollywood was supposed to love their own. I mean, except for Ben Affleck, right? After mostly all of the joking and snubs are put aside, it looks like the Academy has really stepped up their game this year by nominating three foreign born directors in this category. It’s even more impressive to me that the Academy has nominated three foreign films in multiple categories, to the tune of fifteen total nominations. How’s that for snubbing their own?

Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”) - I was so hoping that the Director’s Guild would have shown Spike enough love to give him a leg up in winning this category. But with my betting hat on, I have to roll with the direction pushed by the DGA and every other major award syndicate this season.

Pawel Pawlikowski (“Cold War”) – Pawlikowski’s work in “Cold War” looks to be stunning, and this nomination is visibly well deserved but the three-time BAFTA winner can’t topple Alfonso Cuarón’s “little masterwork that could”.

Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”) – Yorgos has managed to craft a real edge to a film that at one time could have been considered, Oscar bait. And that edge gives this period piece a sharp, and unexpected wit. One that makes it a more likely, however, to be a winner in other categories.

Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”) – Without Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) or Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”) to contend with, the real race is between Alfonso and Spike Lee and after the PGAs were announced, this race is over.

Adam McKay (“Vice”) – I really wish I’d seen this film to see if McKay has evolved as a director since his previous nomination for, “The Big Short”. I don’t think the talented and kinetic director has much of a chance this year in besting Cuaron, I don’t think anyone does, but I’d expect, and look forward to, seeing McKay back.

 

ACTOR – Probably the premiere category this year, with every nominee having turned in a performance that is worthy of, and even likely to, win the coveted gold statue.

Christian Bale (“Vice”) – What appears to be a bit of a category follow-up to last year’s Gary Oldman win is hampered simply by the fact that the character Christian Bale is playing, former vice president Dick Cheney, is nowhere near as beloved as Freddie Mercury is. Insert: another one bites the dust pun, Yo!

Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) – Is freaking Amazing in this film; on every level. I’m telling you that if Bradley gets any better as an actor or director than he is in, “A Star Is Born”, I can’t wait to see it; though I certainly have a hard time imagining something better than his work here. This is the fourth acting nomination Cooper’s received, so he’s due, and this is literally the perfect vehicle and performance to award him for. I’m crushed that I can’t expect him to win.

Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”) - The four-time nominee gets his first lead acting nomination, but the profile of the film is simply not strong enough to overthrow the competition.

Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) – This win makes me so Happy! I’ve been a big big fan of Rami Malek’s since I was first introduced to him through HBO’s, “The Pacific”. To see him embody one of my favorite singers was an absolute thrill and I couldn’t be happier for him, for Freddie Mercury’s legacy, and for Queen the band. Kudos to Brian May and Roger Taylor for sticking to their guns and finding the right man to help them tell their story, their way.

Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”) – In “Green Book”, Viggo Mortensen delivers one of my favorite performances of his career. Mortensen portrays a more accessible, engaging, and dare I say, fun regular-guy type character. And in doing so, he delivers a performance that’s all jelly to Mahershala Ali’s peanut butter.

 

ACTRESS – Between Olivia and Glenn, this one’s almost too Close to call.

Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”) – The delivery of such a quiet performance can be enough to garner the Academy’s attention, but the meek rarely, if ever, inherit the Oscar.

Glenn Close (“The Wife”) – What began with a heartfelt speech at the Golden Globes ultimately led to a SAG award win and a BAFTA loss to Olivia Coleman. Still, I figure this is a done deal as her performance here is subtle but decidedly powerful.

Olivia Coleman (“The Favourite”) – A favorite on the award circuit and a performance worthy of accolades but I can’t get behind a win here. I personally think she was outshined by her far more deliciously devious supporting cast. She did however win a Golden Globe and then the BAFTA, so Close’s win here, sort of, balances some scales.

Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”) – Lady Gaga turns in a stellar big screen debut, one worthy of the award, but far less likely to be a winner against this stiff competition. The Academy will feel good enough about themselves to let this Oscar slide in favor of a Best Original Song award.

Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me”) – A comedian who’s fully capable of delivering dramatic, award worthy, performances is not unheard of. Robin Williams and Tom Hanks are perfect examples, and to a lesser degree so are Eddie Murphy and Jim Carrey, but I don’t think Melissa McCarthy is at either of these levels yet, but her opportunities have just increased dramatically.

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR – The win here is fine. The nominations though, I’m far less sure about.

Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”) – I’m really not a fan of “Moonlight” and I was vocal about not agreeing with the Academy’s choice of awarding Mahershala Ali for his performance in that film, but his turn in “Green Book” as Dr. Don Shirley is absolutely Academy Award worthy. And with all of the award circuit wins he’s getting, how can you bet against him?

Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”) – I just can’t get behind this nomination. I love Adam Driver but this is far from the best performance of the film. A better choice for me, from this film and in this category, would have been Corey Hawkins (“Straight Outta Compton”). And while the Best Actor category is already stacked, it’s still John David Washington that really deserves Academy recognition for his work in the film.

Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”) – I’d love to see Sam win this award. He’s one of the best character actors alive and he’s personally worthy of the accolade. Truth be told however, I didn’t think the role, or the award circuit support were strong enough to garner a win. I’m betting on the Academy seeing things similarly.

Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me”) – Grant has won a series of critic association awards for his performance in the film. As such, the buzz around him was picking up steam that a shot at the Oscar was a real possibility. I didn’t get to see the film before this write up was complete, but I do pay attention to the hype and I use it in my evaluation of potential winners. As the season wears on, that hype leads me further and further away from Grant as a likely winner here.

Sam Rockwell (“Vice”) – I’m a big fan of Sam Rockwell’s and I’m happy for the recognition he’s being shown, but this nomination doesn’t smell quite right to me. He only has five total nominations this year for his work in “Vice” and three of them are high-profile, i.e. the Oscars, BAFTA, and Golden Globes, etc. My question is, why?
Admittedly, I didn’t get to see “Vice” before it left theaters, so I can’t actually speak to the performance itself, but with no wins and so few nominations to support this high-profile “appearance”, I realistically can’t expect the Academy to deliver a prize. So, what gives, Yo?

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – This race delivers some good work to the spotlight but feels like it lacks excitement in the running.

Amy Adams (“Vice”) – The six-time nominee is due for an Oscar, but like Leonardo DiCaprio before her, it’ll most likely have to wait until it’s undeniable. Everyone knows how good she is and how consistently she delivers excellent work, so in the Academy’s mind there seems to be no hurry in awarding her for anything less than the absolute best.

Marina de Tavira (“Roma”) – Certainly the most emotive character of the film but it’s not a role that I think is impactful enough to garner the win.

Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) – When you can’t decide between Emma and Rachel, it’s Regina who winds up with the best chance to win.

Emma Stone (“The Favourite”) – I’m feeling a split vote here with Rachel Weisz, if either are considered. Both deliver awardable, but very different performances and to me it’s way too difficult to choose one over the other.

Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”) - I’m feeling a split vote here with Emma Stone, if either are considered. Both deliver awardable, but very different performances and to me it’s way too difficult to choose one over the other.

 

ANIMATED FEATURE – Hoping to buck that Pixar trend.

“The Incredibles 2” – This proved to be a far better film than I anticipated but still don’t think it can best this year’s winner; see below.

“Isle of Dogs” – It’s a Wes Anderson piece, so it’s odd but not bad. Ultimately, it’s not better, story-wise or visually, then that “Isle of Spider-Mens” movie its going up against.

“Mirai” – The latest film from famed Japanese writer/director Mamoru Hosoda looks to be a wonderfully interesting and potentially moving film. My personal bias here is that for all of the impressive and inventive story elements imposed I just can’t get past the animation style to enjoy it or see where it’s breaking enough new ground visually to garner a win.

“Ralph Breaks the Internet” – I’m only mildly interested in watching this sequel to the perfectly decent first film. I’m certainly not interested in voting for it sight unseen or otherwise, and I’ve heard nothing to the effect of impressiveness from the critics or fans of the film.

“Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse” - I don’t care that Warner Bro’s “The LEGO Movie” got hosed and bounced out of even a nomination in favor of a collection of largely inferior films just a few years back, Sony’s “Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse” is legitimately one of the Top Ten films of the year and deserves this award. The other films in this category cannot even begin to compare.

 

SCREENPLAY ORIGINAL – The words written by this category’s nominees have helped garner a total of ten acting nominations this year. Not sure if that’s a record or not, but it’s pretty damn impressive.

“The Favourite” (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara) – If Yargos Lanthimos, the Oscar Nominated screenwriter of “The Lobster” had written this screenplay, I’d consider it a shoe-in for the win here, but since it’s not his written work, I’m hesitant. However, with 3 acting nominations alone, this has got to be the film to beat in this category.

“First Reformed” (Paul Schrader) – I think this is a real and credible dark-horse. The film’s star, Ethan Hawke, was pretty much a foregone conclusion in the Best Actor Category leading up to the announcement of the nominations. Now that he’s not even in that race, it’s chances of winning here fall desperately behind.

“Green Book” (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly) – I think that the Academy likes the film a lot but the asterisks that come with rewarding it allow me a bit of space to weigh in on the other nominees and their increasingly better chances at gaining some recognition.

“Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón) – Small, personal, and good for some but I don’t think it’s strong enough to pull off a victory here with these other heavier-weights.

“Vice” (Adam McKay) - The screenplay has garnered upwards of ten nominations and at least three wins on the award circuit this year. Compare that to the, forty+ nominations and twenty+ wins for “The Favourite”, and the race is pretty much over for “Vice”

 

SCREENPLAY ADAPTED – Finally, the Academy is doing the right thing…Right?

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” (Joel & Ethan Coen) – It’s been eleven years since the Coen brothers have won an Oscar and I can’t see how these episodic western tales will change that for them this year.

“BlacKkKlansman” (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinpowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee) - Energetic, entertaining, soulful, and sharp. Man, it’s about time Spike Lee got some Oscar recognition. He is winning this award, right?

“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty) – You’d think that after winning the Writer’s Guild Award this would be a lock but man it so doesn’t feel like it. I didn’t have time to get out to the theater to see it, actually it’ll be arriving at my home by Thursday and that’s just too late to screen and update these predictions, but I’ve heard such little noteworthy buzz that I’ve got to go with my gut and bet against it here.

“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Barry Jenkins) - The tender and arguably misunderstood adaptation of James Baldwin’s work was, I think, lost somewhat on an unsuspecting audience. I’m very happy to see Barry Jenkins recognized for his output here, but I’m afraid that recognition will have to suffice.

“A Star Is Born” (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters) - This is the third adaptation of the original 1937 film. That first film won an Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay, the two following adaptations, in 1954 and 1976 respectively, have only won one other Oscar, and that was a Best Original Song award in 1977, for “Evergreen”. I’d look for this 2019 version to do exactly the same.

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN / ART DIRECTION – The designs of the times, they are a changing.

Hannah Beachler (“Black Panther”) – Won the Art Director Guild award for Fantasy Film so where does that leave it? Most likely on the outside of an Oscar win.

Fiona Crombie (“The Favourite”) – Won the Art Director Guild award for Period Piece so where does that leave it? Most likely on the inside of an Oscar win.

Nathan Crowley (“First Man”) – The production design and visual effects in this film go hand-in-hand. Both are raw, bare boned, and ultimately duller than Oscar gold.

John Myhre (“Mary Poppins Returns”) – As memory laden and welcoming as it is, the two-time Oscar winner (“Memoirs of A Geisha” and “Chicago”) can’t levy London in the 1930s above this categories other competition.

Eugenio Caballero (“Roma”) - What I can say about the production design is that the cinematography made it look amazing.

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY – Three and a half foreign films, two of which have been shot in stunning black & white, as contenders this year speaks volumes for the Academy and its global eye.
Note: Every film in this category received multiple nominations and will be vying for a minimum of two Oscars each at this year’s ceremony.

Lukasz Zal (“Cold War”) – Noir-ish, sexy, and cool. The trailer alone, for this stunningly photographed black & white film has got me all wound up. I can’t imagine that it’ll win here, unless the Academy gets testy about directors also being cinematographers; but man I’ve my eyes have got to get me some of this one.

Robbie Ryan (“The Favourite”) – The most notable aspects of the film’s cinematography are the fish-eye lense and low angle shots. The problem is that that’s not enough against the stunning black and white photography in this competition.

Cleb Deschanel (“Never Look Away”) – I could not glean enough from the trailer to really get a sense of the cinematography of the film. Not that it matters from an awards standpoint this year.

Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”) – From the opening shot of the tiled floor, Alfonso Cuarón’s mastery is on clear display. Absolutely stunning work.

Matthew Libatique (“A Star Is Born”) - Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan” lenser utilizes an intimate combination of wide shot and close-up framing to deliver the film’s love and devastation on an emotionally epic scale. Crushing to admit that these images suffer the same awards fate as the film.

 

FILM EDITING – An absolute and impressive whirlwind of connective tissue this year.

Barry Alexander Brown (“BlacKkKlansman”) – With only a handful of nominations on the award circuit culminating in zero wins so far, I have to think that Spike Lee’s long-time editor is a perfectly suitable long shot this year.

John Ottman (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) - The recreation of Live Aid and the Rock & Roll montages alone are enough to carry this film across the finish line. Sprinkle with some humorous and dramatic events over the timeline of years played out in the film and you’ve got yourself another Gold Record, Yo!

Yorgos Mavropsaridis (“The Favourite”) – Simply put, Editing is not one of the accolades I hear much about when people discuss the highlights of the film or its production.

Patrick J. Don Vito (“Green Book”) – Very similar to “Bohemian Rhapsody” in its delivery of road movie montages and the cohesiveness of multiple settings and locations. My vote goes against this one because of its lack of a major spectacle, something like a Live Aid-type highlight to confirm the win.

Hank Corwin (“Vice”) - I wish I had seen the film so that I could confirm or deny the possibility of a win here. “The Big Short” was phenomenally edited by Corwin, and I’d expect a similar sell here. I just can’t bet, sight unseen, that it’s as good or better than the film he previously lost for.

 

COSTUME – I’m sad to report that the two most interesting nominees in the category are most like going home empty-handed.

Mary Zophres (“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”) - The western garb just isn’t gonna cut it this year.

Ruth Carter (“Black Panther”) – It’s arguably the strongest skill set of the film and is an easy accolade for Academy members to bestow, yet Ruth Carter looks to suffer the same Fantasy/Period film split that cost the Production Designer its own Oscar win.

Sandy Powell (“The Favourite”) – This period piece delivers a much duller flavor when compared to the Elizabethan competition, but it can’t be counted out so easily. Sandy Powell is a fourteen-time Oscar nominee with three wins under her belt including the BAFTA this year. I hate to see “Black Panther” lose this award but the scales are leaning heavily to this side.

Sandy Powell (“Mary Poppins Returns”) – The three-time Oscar winner is up for two awards at this year’s ceremony. I wouldn’t expect a split vote to hurt her chances because if she wins, it’ll be for, “The Favourite”.

Alexandra Byrne (“Mary Queen of Scots”) - Though I love the costumes more than those displayed by the other nominees, there’s simply too little recognition for this film overall to choose it ahead of the somewhat-similarly dressed monarchy depicted in “The Favourite”.

 

MAKEUP – Complete immersion is the name of the game here.

“Border” – From John Ajvide Lindqvist, the writer of the original Swedish version of “Let the Right One In”, comes this romantic fantasy that bears makeup akin to cro magnon. I’m seriously looking forward to seeing this film, for several reasons, but I can’t see how the makeup alone could stand up to the Dick Cheney recreation effect delivered by “Vice”.

“Mary Queen of Scots” – I was so upset that I never made it to the theater to see this one. The stunning production design, costumes, and hair stylings are enrapturing. And while the makeup is enticing, from the trailers alone I cannot see much beyond the white face of Queen Elizabeth or the hairstyles behind it to think that combined, they’re enough to win.

“Vice” – Just like last year’s award winner for “Darkest Hour” where Gary Oldman was transformed into Winston Churchill, look for “Vice” and the transformation produced that turned Christian Bale into Dick Cheney to collect the honor this year.

 

ORIGINAL SCORE – A grand mix of instrumentation and approaches, of bombast and restraint. There’s easily more than one deserving winner in this category this year, and at least two new albums on my shelf at home.

Ludwig Goransson (“Black Panther”) – From African rhythms to traditional film orchestration with many more matters in-between, this is stunning and epic aural work. It’s my personal pick as Score of the Year but it seems to be one aspect of the film that’s not receiving much in the way of recognition. What happened to “Wakanda Forever, Yo?”

Terence Blanchard (“BlacKkKlansman”) – An upbeat and effectively theme driven score that allows the audience to follow a character through the music. The instrumentation includes marching drums, piano/organ, strings, reeds/winds and a legitimate band, i.e. bass, drum, guitar that all work together to create a 70s cop show feel, only bigger, better, and surer of itself and what it is. This is a masterfully confident and self-assured score and one that needs to be on my turntable at home.

Nicholas Britell (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) – A piano laden and more ethereal score. One that includes strings and horns but refrains from becoming anything jazzy. Britell brings an honest breath and lightness of soul to this peacefully moving score. It’s quieter and arguably less emotionally fulfilling than either Goransson or Blanchard’s work, which are bigger and more demanding, but I don’t think that’ll hamper it from winning the category.
 
Alexandre Desplat (“Isle of Dogs”) – A Japanese influence permeates this score, including winds, chimes, Taiko drumming, and deep resounding voices. It’s sharp, strong, and clock-worky almost to the tune of monotony and indistinguishable tracks. It’s interesting but it’s not particularly strong compared to the other category titans.

Marc Shaiman (“Mary Poppins Returns”) - The seven-time Academy Award nominee has won only one critic’s choice award for his work on the Disney sequel. I can’t fathom the possibility of an upset win on the Oscar stage.

 

ORIGINAL SONG – “All we hear is: Academy Ga-Ga! Academy Cooper! Academy Ga-Ga”
Note: All five songs will be performed during the comedy broadcast.

“All the Stars” (“Black Panther”) – Written and performed byKendrick Lamar and SZA, “All the Stars” is a fantastic song. Anthemic and dreamy, it’s a song you can get lost in and inspired by. It stands as my third favorite song of 2018. Right behind two other film tracks actually: “Sunflower” (“Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse”) by Post Malone, which deserves to be nominated in this category also, and then by this year’s Best Song winner which we’ll get to in a moment.

“I’ll Fight” (“RBG”) – Performed by Jennifer Hudson, who delivers a stellar vocal on a perfectly baited film track. It’s actually a decent song, but not one that can be separated from its source material. As such, it falls to the bottom of this year’s nominees.

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (“Mary Poppins Returns”) – This year’s bronze medal winner is perfectly Disney and almost as moving as the renaissance era Oscar winners.

“Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”) – Look, you know that it doesn’t get any better than this. While the film itself has been shut out of ever major contest, this song has persevered, winning both a Golden Globe and a BAFTA, and to no one’s surprise, a Grammy. Bolstered by its placement and performance in the film, I think a win here is as undeniable as the film’s live scene ability to floor an audience. Finally, some love for, “A Star Is Born”.

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” (“The Ballas of Buster Scruggs”) - Performed by Willie Watson and Tim Blake Nelson as an old school country duet. It’s story, twang, and harmonica are effective, fun, and on film, set the mood for the episodic ride that the audience is in for. But it’s got no chance against this categories Top Three.

 

SOUND MIXING – Who are the Champions?

“Black Panther” – I’m going to have to side against the big action epic this year in favor of one of the musical pics instead.

“Bohemian Rhapsody” – The movie’s sound technicians literally recreated Live Aid and helped deliver a film that throughly and enjoyably rocked audiences around the world; kinda like the original band did, huh?

“First Man” – A film that’s better left to the Sound Editing category this year.

“Roma” – I really can’t see this film winning in a category that has two musical pics and two much larger, and louder, films to contend with.

“A Star Is Born” - Look man, I don’t even know what to say here. “I’m sorry.” doesn’t even begin to cut it, but it’s all I’ve got, Yo!

 

SOUND EDITING – This category is typically about the biggest boom, but I’m leaning away from the the typical explosions into something a little more personally bombastic.

“Black Panther” – Doing that leaning away thing, Yo!

“Bohemian Rhapsody” – Gonna double down on the musical biopic for the sound awards.

“First Man” – The sound editing, in my opinion, is the strongest aspect of the much maligned film. If there’s a surprise winner here, it’ll be this one.

“A Quiet Place” – A not-so-very dark horse contender here, as it won for sound effects at the MPSE (Motion Picture Sound Editor) awards. I can’t bring myself to choose this one over “First Man” and I’m not picking that one in favor of the double down on “Bohemian Rhapsody” so…wish me luck, Yo!

“Roma” - In a category as bombastic as this one, this is probably the least likely nominee to win.

 

VISUAL EFFECTS – CGI and MoCap heavy work rise well above the lone practical effects outlier.

“Avengers: Infinity War” – Listed as the front-runner and realistically, the most viable option.

“Christopher Robin” – I think there’s just too much going on in this category for Pooh and company to contend with.

“First Man” – A much more practically visual film, Damien Chazelle’s trip to the moon lacks the visual “oomph” of Ron Howard’s “Apollo 13”. While “First Man” remains uniquely effective, it actually does so because of the visual effects lack of “Wow Power”.

“Ready Player One” – A visual tour-de-force in a heaven of complete geekdom; I love it! The sheer amount of easter eggs coupled with the surprise Second Key film sequence is almost enough to dominate the category. Sadly, nostalgia, more often than not, seems to work against Oscar gold.

“Solo: A Star Wars Story” - The last Star Wars film to receive Oscar recognition was “Return of the Jedi”. Though nominations for the seven films following it have persisted, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” isn’t likely to improve the awarded state of the franchise.

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – The winner may be a forgone conclusion but I have to find a way to see these films. Writing about them without seeing what they truly have to offer feels so lame to me.

“Capernaum” (Lebanon) – One of only two films in this category to be nominated for only one Oscar. Zain is a young boy who has some sort of family issues. Enough so that he winds up in a Lebanese court pleading to for the legal system to step in an have his parents stop having children. I’m sure there’s more but…

“Cold War” (Poland) – According to “The Economist” this film is “a faultless romantic epic”. I’ll tell you that it looks stunning and emotionally adult; like Exhaustingly Sexy Hot. As a period piece it looks far more interesting to me than “Roma” was, so if for any reason the Academy forgoes the “Roma” win here in order to give it the single Best Picture Oscar, look for “Cold War” to score.

“Never Look Away” (Germany) – A period piece set during World War II and later in the 1950s. The tale looks to tell the story of Kurt, a painter living under the German regime, who may or may not find love and a chance at something more.

“Roma” (Mexico) – This win was a forgone conclusion well before it’s addition to the Best Picture Category.

“Shoplifters” (Japan) – A family of grifters take in a seemingly orphaned young girl. Looks to be emotional and deeply involving. It was, according to the trailer press, a beloved festival circuit film.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE) – I think I’ve got a 50/50 chance of picking this category right this year. So, Face Off, Yo!

“Free Solo” – This is my 50+ pick. “If you’re pushing the edge, eventually you find the edge.” Everything about this doc appears stunning. Its story and its visuals, to me, appear to be surefire hooks into the bedrock of Oscar gold but that Notorious RBG is a monument in and of herself. The tipping point for me is in the other awards this film has won this year including wins for its cinematography and editing.

“Hale County This Morning, This Evening” – This appears to be a “day in the life of” style film. I couldn’t glean much from the trailer, and I’ve heard little about the film. If anyone voting is in a similar boat as I am then it’s chances of pulling out a win, worthy film or not, aren’t all that high.

“Minding the Gap” – This documentary from HULU looks to tell the stories of a number of young skateboarders who must face the inevitable “growing up”. The film’s trailer seems to tease a film of hard truths and heartache. Of facing the “larger and very real world” of impending adulthood, its impact on their dreams and escapes, and hopefully, into a happy and whole life. It actually looks emotionally strong.

“Of Fathers and Sons” – A harrowing look at raising a child in Islamist Syria. From the trailer, it appears to be a film where the nature vs nurture element the West consistently questions is forgone for a direct and otherwise frightening example of a bluntly nurturing approach.

“RBG” – This is my 50- pick. This CNN produced film covers the life and work of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and is as highly entertaining as it is timely. It’s got a legitimate shot at Oscar Gold but then I thought that very same thing about “Won’t You Be My Neighbor” and “Three Identical Strangers”.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT) – I have problems believing that these are the cream of the crop as most of them are not terribly entertaining or complete.

“Black Sheep” – Concerning the racism and collusion experienced by an African-English youth who, after the brutal murder of a 10 year old Nigerian boy in London, sees his family moved to Essex in the English countryside. Utilizing a single-person interview style and reenactments to tell it’s troubling, albeit unsatisfyingly ended, story of the lengths that one boy goes to in order to fit in with his oppressors. “I Cornelius Walker, made friends w/ monsters.”

“End Game” – This 40 minute doco concerns the evaluation of six different terminally ill patients and how they each choose to mentally face their final days. It’s a fascinating topic that’s served up in a rather weak film. The film really only concerns itself with two of its patient’s stories and the one that gets the most time deals more with the family of the patient rather than the patient herself. It may not be an Oscar winner but it’s a film worth watching even if only for the viewpoints captured and at least one fantastic quote as shared by the man who runs the San Francisco based Zen Hospice: “Suffering is the gap between the life you want and the life you got.”

“Lifeboat” – A slight turn on the more typical refugee story evolves during this disconcerting look at the European immigrant crisis as seen from the boats in the water. By “boats” I mean giant rubber rafts that actually traffic refugees: apparently men, women, and children, who’ve been kidnap and held for ransom in a Libyan prison, and the more traditional boats/boatmen that look to stop the traffickers and save the lives of those being so dangerously trafficked. It’s a little less informative than I’d like it to be, choosing instead to serve up its message of responsibility as “lite guilt” onto the viewer, and I feel that works against its chances of winning the night.

“A Night at the Garden” – Concerning the February 20, 1939 meeting of 20,000 American Nazi Party idealists (I don’t know to what degree they all were members) at Madison Square Garden. The seven minute film is woefully incomplete as it’s made entirely of actual footage, and such a small amount at that, from the actual event. It has a timely air of discomfort to it for sure, but it has even bigger airs of propaganda and incompleteness.

“Period. End of Sentence” – This 25 minute film takes a slightly comedic look at the making of feminine hygiene products, and the lack of menstruation education in the Hapur District, an area 60 kilometers outside of New Delhi, India. On the basis of this being the most fun and entertaining film in the category, I’ll make it my pick to win the Oscar.

 

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATION) – A really good selection of nominees this year and all of them actually have credible chances of winning, but I don’t think that makes much of a difference.

“Animal Behaviour” – Group therapy for neurotic animals can be at least amusing, but I wouldn’t think of this one as Oscar winning.

“Bao” – The Pixar film is…well it’s a Pixar short so it’s what you’d expect it to be It may not be my favorite short of this category but it’s scertainly the most visible and most likely to win.

“Late Afternoon” – The heart-rendering short is beautifully expressed, colored, and scored but ultimately feels under animated. The short itself feels like a children’s book from the mid-late 70s. It’s the kind of thing that would have garnered Pixar awards and accolades out the ear if it had been made by them; damn thing almost made me cry, Yo!

“One Small Step” – From Taiko Studios, this 7+ min gem is the kind of thing that’s made to rival Pixar. Overly familiar are its design, direction, and scope. The animated film’s colors and images are both a little flatter than Pixar’s but the comparisons are as impossible to miss as it’s emotional impact.

“Weekends” - This 15 minute silent film explores the days and nights a young boy spends with each of his divorced parents. The film utilizes digetic sound, a piano the mother and son play as well as Dire Straits’, “Money For Nothing”, and non-diegetic music, or score, rather than dialogue, to help tell it’s story.

 

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) – Oscar, thy name is Depression. And not just because of the subject matter throughout the category. Up against my final deadline I found out that the only two films I was able to screen, and then eliminate, in this category, were the Wrong Films. So, I’m making this pick almost completely in the dark. Cross your fingers, legs, and eyes, Yo!

“Detainment” – This devastating short film is mired in Oscar controversy. The film itself is a reenactment of a series of police interviews/interrogations of two 10yr old boys who may be responsible for the kidnap and murder of two-year old James Bulger. It’s a frighteningly intense and emotionally devastating looking film. There’s nothing “feel good” about this one at all.
Now the controversy comes in because the filmmaker didn’t ask permission from the deceased boy’s family to make the short film. To be fair, he didn’t legally need to, but considering the painful circumstances and emotional toll on the family, it would’ve been the right thing to do.
As it stands, the mother of the deceased boy, after learning of the film’s existence, was adamant that the film not be distributed, nor considered for Oscar contention, as it’s entirely too painful for the family to re-live. She’s hopping mad that the film now has an Oscar platform as well as the exposure that goes with it, and is actively campaigning against the film. So, if you’re an Academy member, who’s side do come down on? Me, I’m going to count on a little respect for the family this time around.

“Fauve” – I hear the “left turn” and abrupt ending have been hard on audiences. A lot harder than voting against it I presume.

“Marguerite” – An aging woman and her young caretaker share an emotional moment. It just feels better than the rest of the nominees.

“Mother” – A nineteen minute short film in which a mother receives a dubiously frightening phone call from her young son. The trailer is certainly enticing, but not in a way that you might expect. It’s literally a ninety second shot of a ocean beach made horrifyingly complete with the beginnings of child’s phone call. It’s understandably creepy and effective.

“Skin” - A twenty minute short film concerning an innocuous moment that sends two racially divided families into violence. This one looks exceptionally well produced, but the subject matter feels like a turnoff for audiences and voters alike.

-m-