95th Annual Academy Awards - Oscar Picks by Reviews by Matthew

The 95th Annual Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 13, 2023. And as I’m looking over the list of the newly released nominees, I’m a bit flummoxed. A mix of less-worthy popcorn movies and under-appreciated award-type films, along with a pair overly lauded fan favorites, an international classic, boring-ass songs, and a few films even I’m unfamiliar with. Couple that with a bunch of these films having runtimes exceeding 150 minutes and this is gonna be a long six weeks.

Note: For those of you that are new to this write-up, there’s a section located on the very last page called, “Oscars At A Glance”. There, you can find a quick list of the winners that I’ve chosen for every category. So, now the both of us can play without all the distracting words getting in the way of the bottom line.

-m-

-m-'s: Oscars At A Glance:	How many will I get correct ?	Totals - 14 out of 24 picked
Category	-m-'s Picks	The Oscar goes to:
Best Picture –	Everything Everywhere All at Once	Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director –	Everything Everywhere All at Once	Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor –	Elvis	The Whale - Brendan Fraser
Best Actress –	Everything Everywhere All at Once	Everything Everywhere All at Once - Michelle Yeoh
Best Supporting Actor –	Everything Everywhere All at Once	Everything Everywhere All at Once - Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress –	The Banshees of Inisherin	Everything Everywhere All at Once - Jamie Lee Curtis
Best Animated Picture -	Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio	Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Screenplany (Original) –	Everything Everywhere All at Once	Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Screenplay (Adapted) –	Women Talking	Women Talking
Best Cinematography –	All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Art Direction – Best Production Design	Babylon	All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Costume Design –	Elvis	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Makeup –	Elvis	The Whale
Best Film Editing –	Everything Everywhere All at Once	Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Original Score –	Babylon	All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song –	RRR	RRR
Best Sound –	Top Gun: Maverick	Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects –	Avatar: The Way of Water	Avatar: The Way of Water
Best International Feature -	All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Documentary (Feature) -	Navalny	Navalny
Best Documentary (Short Subject) –	The Martha Mitchell Effect	The Elephant Whisperers
Best Short Film (Animation) –	The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse	The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Best Short Film (Live Action) –	Le Pupille	An Irish Goodbye

 

PICTURE –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – The guaranteed International Film award winner, has that, and its lack of fun (see other category contenders), working against it here. If this were an American film, it’d be tougher to rule it out.

“Avatar: The Way of Water” – The sequel to Cameron’s 2009-billion-dollar hit is certainly worth the watch, and is a technical feat. Realistically, it’s not as cinematically impactful as that first film though, and even that one didn’t win this big prize.

“The Banshees of Inisherin” – The most likely front runner as it suits the “prestigious film” ideal of classic Oscar thinking but as the award season has rolled on, its the cast that have been the biggest winners.

“Elvis” – The direct biopic continues to surprise with numerous wins for its star and makeup. I’d expect a somewhat similar reaction on Oscar night, which still keeps it outside of the biggest award.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – This strange and surprising film turned out to be the most original and overwhelmingly entertaining movie of the year. Winning the PGA, DGA, and four SAG awards seals the deal.

“The Fablemans” – The indirect biopic is not nearly as heart-warming or grand to be considered a legitimate frontrunner. Spielberg has a long history with the Academy and even that has been a tough slog for him when it comes to winning this or the director Oscar.

“TAR” – Maestro Todd Field has delivered two-thirds of a masterwork with TAR. That’s not enough for me to bet on here.

“Top Gun: Maverick” – The most enjoyable sequel, and arguably the most enjoyable film, of the year is a hot pick in the technical categories, and may see some love in preferential balloting here, but neither of those accolades can push it across the night’s biggest finish line. If for any reason it did, it’d take my breath away. (#DadJoke)

“Triangle of Sadness” – The Palme d’or winner has its moments, but I think Cannes was its peak.

“Women Talking” – I would like to congratulate Sarah Polley on her screenplay win and this nomination.

DIRECTOR –
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – This is Martin McDonagh’s first nomination as a director. He has three other nominations and one win in the Original Screenplay category. I’d have thought him a strong horse in this race back in January, but as awards season has gone on, he’s losing more and more ground to…

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – …the overtaking horse in this race, Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, otherwise known as “The Daniels”, the team that brought the world the glorious Swiss Army Man (2016). The overwhelming award season love (excepting BAFTA) for the work they’ve done and the product they’ve produced, along with the Director’s Guild win, makes them the smart money bet.

“The Fablemans” – Steven Spielberg earned this award last year. This would be a much tougher decision if his remake of West Side Story was the honoree this year and his work for The Fablemans had gone up against Jane Campion.

“TAR” – Todd Field returns to filmmaking after a sixteen-year absence and TAR is quite a statement. I think Field is vying with McDonagh for runner-up and may even have the edge.

“Triangle of Sadness” – Ruben Ostlund feels like the last option on a short list of Maybes.

ACTOR –
“Elvis” – Austin Butler beat Colin Farrell at the BAFTAs, then lost the SAG to Brendan Fraser. #PossibleUpset? Sure, but Butler has the Golden Globe/BAFTA combo, which, more often than not, beats Fraser’s Critics Choice/SAG wins. I’m not feeling this one as much as I’m betting on it.

“The Banshees of Inisherin” – I absolutely loved Colin Farrell in this. Playing so effectively against his type has everything to do with damn good work. I’d love to see him win this, though I’d hate to see Brendan Fraser lose (I was there when Encino Man came out, Yo!).

“The Whale” – Stunning and transformative work from Brendan Fraser. I’m sure I’m not the only cinephile chewing his pencil to bits over this choice. I don’t like the choice, but Butler’s film has the Best Picture nomination, so he’s got the edge, even if his performance doesn’t completely have my heart.

“Aftersun” – Paul Mescal may have delivered a noteworthy performance but as this is the film’s only nomination, a win here feels way out of left field.

“Living” – I’d give Bill Nighy a fourth place standing because of his lengthy career but I can’t make a bet for him to win this year over Butler, Farrell, or Fraser.

ACTRESS –
“TAR” – Cate Blanchett won a Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, the BAFTA, and is looking likely to win her third Osc..errrh! What, she lost SAG? Maybe it’s time to get on the other bandwagon, Yeoh?

“Blonde” – After turning in a powerful and much talked about performance back in September, Ana de Armas was actually a surprise nomination. Couple that with no other nominations for the film and the odds look pretty slim for the coveted award.

“To Leslie” – Andrea Risenborough fully nails the worlds-destroying alcoholic, but I don’t think it covers enough new territory to consider her a front runner. Regardless of the nomination controversy, I think this category inclusion is her last stop this year and the first stop of the future.

“The Fablemans” – The now five-time Oscar nominee Michelle Williams is up against two powerhouses this year in Blanchett and Yeoh. Even if the pair split somehow, I don’t see that split working in favor of a third party. It’s one or the other, and this year, Williams is neither.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – “I say ‘Michelle’. You say, ‘Yeoh’.” – Jamie Lee Curtis to the entire SAG award ceremony attendees and audiences watching at home. Man, we ate that shit up. Mmmm, Oscar.

SUPPORTING ACTOR –
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Brendan Gleeson is a decent bet, and should be a future Oscar winner, but he was literally my fourth favorite performance of the film.

“Causeway” – I heard Brian Tyree Henry was fantastic in the film, I just didn’t have time see. Its single nomination doesn’t do him any favors equal to what his nomination does for the film. Yeah, I missed it, but it’ll come around on the guitar again, and I’ll catch it then because I have this reason to.

“The Fablemans” – Judd Hirsch is a class act with a truly award-worthy body of work, and he delivers a solid voice with a minimal amount of screen time in The Fablemans. There was a time when I believed that that could secure a win, especially in the supporting category. Not tonight though.

“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Barry Keoghan delivers my favorite performance of the film and is the real heart of its limited comedy. Ultimately heartbreaking in every way, including seeing this surprise Oscar dream die as well. #BAFTAremembers

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – This is not only a historical vote but a vote for the resurrection of a beloved 1980s child star; or at least for Ke Huy Quan’s most famous character, Short Round.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS –
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Angela Bassett is powerful, no doubt, but does the Academy give a career award for a supporting Marvel performance? Oscar prognosticators are split, so am I, this one’s gonna be dicey.

“The Whale” – In the process of elimination, Hong Chau (The Menu) is in a film with no Best Picture nominee and that categorically hurts her chances. I loved her in The Menu, by the way.

“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Kerry Condon delivered a strong performance and was an exceptional chamber of the heart in the film. Winning the BAFTA was a strong statement, but it was an English statement for a very Irish film. Still, honoring some prestige against either fan favorite (winning the split vote?) would be very much like Oscar.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Jamie Lee Curtis is a blast in this but I’m having trouble seeing it get her first across the finish line. Yeah, she won the SAG and delivered a rousing acceptance speech, one that should solidify Michelle Yeoh’s win, but I just think The Banshees of Inisherin is gonna walk away with something and Condon’s win would be prestigious.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Of the two film nominees, I think Stephanie Hsu has slipped to fourth.

ANIMATED FEATURE –
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – Is quite an impressive film but one that requires audiences to make it past the first half-hour. I actually shut this one off during my original screening and was immediately impressed when I picked it back up to finish the final ninety minutes. Couple that with the wonderful but un-nominated “Ciao Papa”, and del Toro’s acceptance speeches about animation being for more than just children’s films and you’ve got one well-earned winner.

“Marcell the Shell with Shoes On” – Currently my favorite film to watch of this group but most likely the third or fourth on the betting sheet.

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” – I was doing my final read-through and I realized I hadn’t written a thing for this entry. I don’t think it matters.

“The Sea Beast” – Didn’t want to see it when it was originally released and still don’t. The only good thing about that is that I don’t think its slim-to-none chances of winning need me to.

“Turning Red” – This is my other third or fourth choice. Wrapped up in a conventionally modern animated film, this younger adult-themed piece feels, at times, as odd as its pre-teen protagonist in the watching, so I don’t like its chances.

SCREENPLAY ORIGINAL –
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – This is Martin McDonagh’s single chance at Oscar Gold this year. By comparison, the film is not as award-winningly strong as his Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was, so is he fast enough to beat the juggernaut that is Everything Everywhere All at Once? Magic-8 Ball says, “I wouldn’t bet on it”.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Seriously considering this, but I’m not sold on the screenplay beating McDonagh. I’ll wait for the WGA results…A week later…The win at WGA supports the WGA/Critics Choice double-whammy that secures an Oscar victory. My head doesn’t feel as good as my wallet does with this pick, but…

“The Fablemans” – The story of Spielberg’s early life has got a few things going for it, namely his name on the screenplay. Sure, it was interesting enough to see what inspired and then drove him to become a filmmaker. In light of that, I’d actually like to see a sequel. You know, something that explores his early career. These films might be too schmaltzy to win Oscars, but if we can get more David Lynch-as-John Ford-TED Talks out of it, than Woo Hoo!

“TAR” – Dense, Dense, Brevity. I don’t like those odds.

“Triangle of Sadness” – Satirical, pointed, and individually odd. Ultimately, I don’t think it’s a winner, not amongst these competitors. Be that as it may, I’d really like a read through of the Captain’s Dinner scene.

SCREENPLAY ADAPTED –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Considering the source material, I completely get the nomination, but the omission of my two favorite parts of the book, one of which solidifies its impact, leaves me with a complete inability to support a vote for Oscar gold. I don’t care if I fail to pick this one correctly because this film, in my opinion, doesn’t deserve it.

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” – Writer/Director Rian Johnson is not going to beat Writer/Director Sarah Polley with a sequel. Oh, No.

“Living” – Kazuo Ishiguro (The Remains of the Day) reimagines Akira Kurosawa’s Ikiru (1952) to the tune of 3 BAFTA, 2 Oscar, 2 Critics Choice, and 1 Golden Globe nomination. Unfortunately, there’s no winners here to be found.

“Top Gun: Maverick” – This nomination is hilarious to me in the face of an ongoing copyright lawsuit concerning the original source material that the scripts of both franchise films are supposed to be based on. #DangerZone

“Women Talking” – Writer/Director Sarah Polley, a 2023 Critics Choice and WGA winner, and two-time Oscar nominee, has earned every damn bit of this award.

PRODUCTION DESIGN / ART DIRECTION –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – With no historical love for war films, see loses for Saving Private Ryan and 1917, is it smart to pick the foreign war film to upstage them? I wouldn’t bet on it.

“Avatar: The Way of Water” – The original film won the Oscar here, but I see the follow-up as a shadow of the former in almost every respect; including its award wins.

“Babylon” – You and I both know just how much Hollywood loves to see the glory of its past on the Silver Screen. Along with winning the Art Director’s Guild, Critics Choice and the BAFTA, this is your winner.

“Elvis” – Plenty to admire and plenty of Baz Luhrmann history to bank on. People love this movie, just not sure how strong the buzz is though.

“The Fablemans” – The 1950s and/or 1960s, Anywhere, can’t complete with Hollywood in its heyday.

CINEMATOGRAPHY –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Copious amounts of beautiful wide shots, strongly reminiscent of Terrance Malik films, that put audiences astoundingly in the war-torn landscape of France during the first world war, make this a seriously strong contender. The fact that it’s got nine nominations and is only photographically comparable to the singularly nominated “Bardo,” in my opinion, makes it a sure thing.

“Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” – I say, if you want to win an Oscar just photograph an Alejandro G. Inarritu film. Worked twice in a row for Emmanuel Lubezki, and after seeing Darius Khondji’s (Evita) work here, it appears he’s taking up the challenge. This being the film’s only nomination strongly works against it though.

“Elvis” – Polished and Possible…but likely? Note: Mandy Walker was the first woman to win the ASC (American Society of Cinematographers) award and would be the first female cinematographer to win the Oscar.

“Empire of Light” – I just found out Roger Deakins was behind the lens here. With an historic sixteen nominations and, finally, two recent wins (Blade Runner 2049 and 1917), his work here is easiest to overlook.

“TAR” – Florian Hoffmeister’ s work is cold, methodical, and properly attuned to Todd Field’s film. That makes it a strong “other than first” place on this list.

FILM EDITING –
“The Banshees of Inisherin” – I’m going to exclude Mikkel E.G. Neilsen’s work here simply because it’s a film that doesn’t have a Sound award nomination. Trends and Tendencies say, Nah.

“Elvis” – What an amazingly edited film. Clearly, to me, noticeable editing that deserves to be recognized. However, my appreciation for similarly edited past nominees The Trial of the Chicago Seven and Tick, Tick, Boom! did me no favors when betting on a winner.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – This hyper-kinetically edited wonder would be the category lock if it only had a Sound award nomination. However, it has the Critic’s Choice and BAFTA wins under its belt and is riding a dominant wave of success. Hmm…#PositiveGhostRider

‘TAR” – Very much like German architecture the editing is hard, lined, and perfectly noted. So, while it’s structurally sound and quite strong, I don’t think it’s aesthetically pleasing or flashy enough to garner the win.

“Top Gun: Maverick” – The stunning work, combined with a Sound nomination normally seals this deal but it’s only won one other major editing award, and that wasn’t in competition with EEAAO. Hmm…#NegativeGhostRider

COSTUME –
“Babylon” – While reliving a walk-through old Hollywood is often rewarded, the costumes have always been a tougher sell.

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Ruth Carter won her first Oscar for the original Black Panther film. And it’s clear from the film that she’s still producing at that level, but is it above and beyond? The guild didn’t think so, and honestly, neither do I.

“Elvis” – The only contender that doesn’t produce a second thought and most likely weighted bet.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – A bit out there, but not Priscilla Queen of the Desert - Gold out there.

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” – The only nomination for the fashion themed film. A film that I’d never heard of until this nomination and still don’t hear anyone talking about…I don’t like those odds.

MAKEUP –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – Mud and Blood and the tendency to not award war films here.

“The Batman” – Colin Ferrell, Yo!

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – In a category this stacked, something’s got to go, and this is the least transformative-ly impressive of the list.

“Elvis” – Best Actor and Picture nominations with a host of made-up and styled cast members. The Favorite.

“The Whale” – Best Actor with no picture nomination and the only makeup of notice in the film.

ORIGINAL SCORE –
“All Quiet On the Western Front” – Volker Bertelmann’s (Lion) sparse, quiet, and repeating Hans Zimmer motif underlaid with a Pink Floyd keyboard chord straight out of The Wall makes for an interesting log line, but in reality, is a lot less interesting in the listening. It won the BAFTA, so if it wins it won’t be a surprise, but that’s no guarantee here.

“Babylon” – Wow, this thing is Alive! Justin Hurwitz is heading the line here. It’s an early pick from a film that is universally divisive. I don’t care, the horns, the violin mimicking a mid-eastern woman’s voice, the way you find yourself whistling the theme days after you’ve left the theater…amazing. The rest is an absolute party in any setting.

“The Banshees of Inisherin” – Three-time Oscar nominee, Carter Burwell (Carol, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) gets some nomination recognition for his tender and attentive score. Unfortunately, he’s nowhere near the top of the heap this year.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Son Lux’s score is almost as odd as the film itself, but not nearly as pleasing. Mixing traditional scoring with tones from goodness knows what…but I heard at least one chainsaw.

“The Fablemans” – 90-year-old John Williams delivers one of his more beautiful scores in The Fablemans, too bad the overall film isn’t as moving. With that, and his previous retiring/not retiring stance, voting feels a little cold. Not out of the running, but not a strong bet.

ORIGINAL SONG –
“Tell It Like a Woman” – “Applause” by the fourteen-time nominee Diane Warren, is one of her stronger nominated tracks, but it isn’t remarkably memorable. The fact that she garnered an honorary Oscar last November doesn’t help her chances against the bigger Kahunas she’s pooled with here.

“Top Gun: Maverick” – “Hold My Hand” from Lady Gaga and BloodPop had absolutely no impact on me either time I saw the film. Neither did the song come up for me in the real world…Anywhere. So, I never even bothered with the track until I was sitting down to write this. And barring its over-the-top video presentation, the song is way better than I thought it would be, but it isn’t “Danger Zone”, nor is it Giorgio Moroder’s Academy Award winner, “Take My Breath Away”. Not even close.

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – “Lift Me Up” by Oscar winning composer Ludwig Goransson (Black Panther), gets a strong boost from Rihanna, and the memory of Chadwick Boseman, but it’s pretty tedious and repetitively begging. The real capper though was when hearing its mid-tune acoustic guitar, I immediately felt myself longing for Guillermo del Toro’s “Ciao Papa”.

“RRR” – “Naatu Naatu” by M.M. Keeravani and Chandrabose, has as pulsating an energy as Justin Hurwitz’s Babylon score. This year, it deserves to be the clear winner. But I said that about “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman, which lost to the clearly inferior “Remember Me” from Coco. Check back with me after they perform it on Oscar night.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – “This Is a Life” by Ryan Lott (Son Lux), David Byrne (Talking Heads), and Mitski, is an awkward slog that feels better served as a festival circuit favorite rather than an Academy Award winner.

SOUND (Combined Sound Editing and Sound Mixing Categories) –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – The dourness of the World War I drama cannot possibly beat the audible “America…Fuck Yeah!” of Top Gun: Maverick.

“Avatar: The Way of Water” – Against this year’s other show horses, there just won’t be enough love left over for the Pandora clans.

“The Batman” – In my opinion this category is entirely too stacked to believe The Batman has much of a chance at rising to the top.

“Elvis” – I’d like to think there was a world where the musical was a solid bet over the action and/or war movies, but it won’t be a world we recognize this year.

“Top Gun: Maverick” – Feeling the sound in the theater as it pounded through your body was one hell of a concussive experience. I’d call it Oscar worthy.

VISUAL EFFECTS –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – The impression here is in the visual effect of death. It’s shocking for sure, gut-wrenching at times, and not altogether discountable. Just hard to look at long enough to honor it as work.

“Avatar: The Way of Water” – James Cameron has delivered another three-hour treatise on visual effects. One that’s most easily honored here. And seeing as how it’s been thirteen years since the first film blew audiences away, there’s no arguing the point until at least the third film, when there’s roughly nine hours of effects, and people start asking, “What’s new?”

“The Batman” – DC vs Marvel might still be worth arguing but from a special effect standpoint, it’s tired. So tired.

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Marvel vs DC might still be worth arguing but from a special effect standpoint, it’s tired. So tired.

“Top Gun: Maverick” – But those actors were really in those planes and those planes really were in the air, doing what they’re actually able to do. I think this one really blurs the lines between what’s real and what’s a visual effect. Quite an achievement, Yo!

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM –
“All Quiet on the Western Front” – With nine total nominations, including one in best Picture, there’s no way you can bet against it.

“Argentina, 1985” – Nope.

“Close” – Nope.

“EO” – Nope.

“The Quiet Girl” – Nope.

BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE) –
“All That Breathes” – This interesting and somewhat small documentary concerning a black kite (it’s a bird) hospital in New Delhi isn’t getting enough steam to sail it past the category’s three other favorites this year.

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” – The critically lauded film, concerning photographer Nan Goldin has remained elusive on the screening front. Seriously, if it was more widely available, I bet it’d have stronger category legs. As it stands, I’m not sure who’s actually seen it.

“Fire of Love” – The widely available film, which romances the romance of two volcanologists, is an interesting and ultimately tragic affair. Awarding it here would be a welcome homage to its central characters, as is news of a developing bio pic, but I think there’s one other film that can beat it.

“A House Made of Splinters” – This is the only film in this category that I’m not hearing about…Like, at all.

“Navalny” – The documentary recounts the assassination attempt on popular Putin challenger, Alexei Navalny. The film is surprisingly fun, exceptionally smart, and topically ready to take the Oscar stage.

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT) –
“The Elephant Whisperers” – Of the two animal related documentaries here, this is the better. Beautiful in both its emotion and cinematography, the film breaks the interspecies barrier to demonstrate that family doesn’t have to be blood related or even from the same species.

“Haulout” – This super interesting idea of a loan marine biologist studying the largest walrus haulout in the Siberian Arctic is a bit of a dull excuse to comment textually, after twenty-five minutes without context, on climate change. Failing to maximize its potential, I can’t expect a win.

“How Do You Measure a Year?” – A father filmed and interviewed his daughter as she grew from the ages of 2-18. I’ve tried to find a way to screen this and couldn’t. Love the idea, I’m sure voters do to, but this one could be hurt by its lack of availability or skip right over the finish line. Surprisingly, it’s the one short I’m not hearing anybody talk about.

“The Martha Mitchell Effect” – Speaking out against Richard Nixon and Watergate, this forty-minute documentary looks resoundingly at the wife of then Attorney General John Mitchell, who, according to Nixon himself, was “a hell of a menace”. Told completely with archival footage, the film highlights the unreserved and whip-smart Martha Mitchell, aka: The Unguided Missile, to a resoundingly entertaining effect. Look, I’m at the guessing stage here. A coin flip isn’t gonna win this category, and, to me, this film is the most interesting and most likely to get remade into an Oscar worthy feature. One that could finally land someone like Michelle Williams (The Fablemans) that elusive Oscar of her own.

“Stranger At the Gate” – The anti-hate film is a moving story that’s traditionally set up to be one thing but ultimately becomes another. Having the effect of moving the audience in an unexpected way. Perhaps it will move voters similarly, but I’m just not convinced.

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATION) –
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” – From Bad Robot comes this J.J. Abrams and Woody Harrelson produced short, based on the 2019 book, that serves up lessons and platitudes of family, home and love. A little dour feeling, but probably the front runner in an otherwise sketchy category.

“The Flying Sailor” – Most likely the darkest horse here; certainly, the shortest. Regardless, the silent film displays a myriad of images meant to represent the life flashing before the eyes of a dying man. I gotta say, that outside of the boat animation at the beginning of the short, I’m not feeling it.

“Ice Merchants” – The second silent film in the category has the look of a lovingly animated children’s book. Utilizing approximately five primary colors, the film tells the warm story of a father and son living on a high-altitude mountainside. I have a question or two after the fact, but it’s a nice watch.

“My Year of Dicks” – A fifteen-year-old girl recounts the thematic episodes of the year she tried to lose her virginity. Based on the memoir by Pamela Ribon, the variably animated film packs the most punch of the nominees on this list. But a dick-punch doesn’t always get you an Oscar.

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” – I’ve heard the meta-short is interesting, but I didn’t get to see it and I’m not seeing it rise to the top of any other prognosticator’s lists, sooo.

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) –
“An Irish Goodbye” – This sweet tale about two brothers fulfilling their deceased mother’s bucket list has a 50/50 shot of winning. I’m flipping the coin and going with the other option.

“Ivalu” – Sometimes called “Misery Porn”, this sad, poetic and gorgeous short, filmed on a glacier in Greenland, sees a young girl looking for her sister. I don’t think there’s an Oscar out there to find though.

“Le Pupille” – Produced, in part, by Academy Award winner Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), this thirty-minute short concerns a group of orphan girls at Christmas time in war-torn Italy. The film is cute and well produced but a bit pointless; even going so far as to say so. That just might push it over the top. Well, that and the fact that Cuaron’s name is attached.

“Night Ride” – A second Christmas-time short sees a chance meeting of two differing minorities on a late-night tram. A bit vulgar but with a nice enough sentiment to imagine one character getting their due. Not the strongest of the wintered pair.

“The Red Suitcase” – I really wanted to see this but couldn’t find it available anywhere. Maybe it’s hiding from me like the main character is hiding from her arranged marriage. Boo…

This year’s nominees list produced a far more interesting screening-fest than I expected. The movies I did watch were all worth the extended runtimes and thrilled me infinitely more than I thought they might. I’m of the mind that they thrilled Academy voters as well, making this a far more difficult year to predict. I’m sure I’m going to miss a few picks here, but what’s interesting is that I can’t clearly predict which are the challenges and which are the shoe-ins. There’s a healthy amount of shifting weight this year, and it can bend in any number of variating ways. Should make for a fun night this Sunday. #OscarSurprisesAwait

-m-